Winning Prediction

AE Larisa vs PAOK

Stoiximan Super League · 21 February 2026

Prediction: Bet: AE Larisa Total Yellow Cards Over 2.5

Probability: 82%

Why

Tactical Reasoning: This bet is based on "Defensive Desperation". AE Larisa's foul counts spike massively when they face superior opposition (e.g., 26 fouls vs Aris, 20 vs Levadiakos). PAOK's attackers, specifically Taison and Andrija Živković, are statistical foul magnets (drawing 3-5 fouls per game combined). With PAOK expected to hold ~65% possession, Larisa defenders will be chasing shadows and forced into late, card-worthy challenges to break transitions.

Supporting stats

Supporting Evidence: Discipline Collapse: AE Larisa received 5 Yellow Cards vs Aris and 4 Yellow Cards vs Panetolikos/Kifisia. Foul Volume: Larisa averages 18.6 fouls per game in their last 5 competitive matches. H2H Context: Even in a 1-0 loss, Larisa committed 12 fouls; expect this to rise at home under pressure.

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