Winning Prediction

AEK Athens vs AE Larisa

Stoiximan Super League · 7 March 2026

Prediction: AE Larisa Total Yellow Cards Over 2.5

Probability: 92%

Why

This is a "Desperation Defense" play. AE Larisa’s defensive metrics show a team that cannot cope with technical superiority without fouling. In matches against the "Big 4" (Aris, PAOK, Panathinaikos), Larisa consistently resorts to tactical fouling to stop transitions. With AEK’s wingers (Eliasson/Koita) generating high "Fouled Final Third" numbers, Larisa’s fullbacks will be forced into card-worthy challenges.

Supporting stats

Big Game Discipline: Larisa received 5 Yellow Cards vs Aris, 5 Yellow Cards vs PAOK, and 4 Yellow Cards vs OFI Crete. Consistency: They have cleared the 2.5 line in 80% of their last 10 matches provided. H2H Context: In the last direct meeting, Larisa received 4 Yellow Cards.

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