Winning Prediction

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin

Bundesliga · 5 September 2026

Prediction: Total Match Cards Over 3.5

Probability: 76%

Why

H2H yellow card totals across the last 5 meetings average exactly 5.0 per game (4, 3, 7, 6, 5), with 4 of 5 meetings producing ≥4 cards — the strongest single cards predictor is fully triggered.

Supporting stats

H2H combined yellows avg = 5.0 (4/5 ≥4 cards); Union Berlin's away possession in H2H consistently 25–38%, below the 45% underdog-foul trigger; Union Berlin totaltackle 14–17 per H2H meeting activating the away-team accumulation pattern.

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