Winning Prediction

Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga · 14 February 2026

Prediction: Serhou Guirassy to Score Anytime

Probability: 70%

Why

Tactical Reasoning: Guirassy is the terminal point of Dortmund's attack and their primary penalty taker. The Shotmap analysis confirms his touches are concentrated in the central penalty area ("Danger Zone"), and he consistently registers high-quality shots (Goals vs Heidenheim, Wolfsburg). Mainz's defense, while spirited, allows a high volume of shots inside the box (16 vs Wolfsburg, 11 vs Heidenheim), which a finisher of Guirassy's caliber will exploit.

Supporting stats

Supporting Evidence: Recent Form: Scored 2 goals vs Heidenheim, 1 vs Wolfsburg. Shot Volume: consistently takes 3-5 shots per game, mostly from central positions. Mainz Vulnerability: Mainz conceded 2 goals to strikers in similar molds (Kane/Openda) in recent away games.

Aurora Bet AI – verified winning football predictions and sports analytics.