Winning Prediction

Borussia M'gladbach vs 1. FSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga · 19 September 2026

Prediction: Total Match Cards Over 3.5

Probability: 72%

Why

Combined yellow card average of 4.2 per match already exceeds the 3.5 line before any red card contribution, with M'gladbach averaging 2.9 yellows alone nearly clearing it unilaterally.

Supporting stats

M'gladbach yellow card avg last 10 = 2.9/match (peaks: 5, 4, 4, 4); Mainz yellow card avg last 10 = 1.3/match (combined projected 4.2); H2H card totals across last 5 meetings: 5, 1, 3, 7, 7 — avg 4.6, with 3/5 producing ≥5 total cards.

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