Winning Prediction

Cremonese vs Bologna

Serie A · 4 April 2026

Prediction: Cremonese Total Team Fouls Over 12.5

Probability: 80%

Why

"Frustration Friction & Inefficient Tackling". Cremonese suffers from a severe structural flaw: their 'Won Tackle %' is critically low. When their initial press is bypassed by Bologna's possession-heavy system, their defenders do not win the ball cleanly. Instead, they are mathematically forced into cynical, tactical fouls to stop transitions and disrupt Bologna's rhythm in the middle third.

Supporting stats

Cremonese's tackle win rate frequently drops into the single digits (4% vs Atalanta, 4% vs Verona, 6% vs Inter, 6% vs Genoa). This glaring inefficiency forces them to commit high foul totals to survive: 19 fouls vs Inter, 27 fouls vs Lecce, 17 fouls vs Fiorentina, and 14 fouls vs Milan.

Aurora Bet AI – verified winning football predictions and sports analytics.