Winning Prediction

Genoa vs Lazio

Serie A · 28 September 2025

Prediction: Bet: Genoa Total Fouls Over (e.g., Over 12.5 or 13.5, depending on market odds)

Probability: 80%

Why

Why this bet: Genoa consistently commits a high number of fouls, a pattern exacerbated when facing possession-dominant and technically superior teams like Lazio. Their low tackle success rate further contributes to this.

Supporting stats

Supporting Stats: Genoa's Last 10 Matches: Genoa committed 16, 15, 14, 10, 14, 23, 16 fouls in their recent games. This averages to approximately 15.5 fouls per match. Genoa's Defensive Duels: Their "wonTacklePercent" is frequently low (6%, 11%, 9%, 7%, 5%), indicating struggles in winning the ball cleanly, leading to more fouls. Match Overview (H2H): Genoa committed more fouls than Lazio in 3 out of 4 head-to-head matches (16 vs 10, 16 vs 9, 7 vs 13, 6 vs 12 – Genoa higher in 2 of 4, but still high numbers). Lazio's Ball Retention: Lazio's high ball possession (consistently 60%+ in H2H) will force Genoa into more defensive actions and challenges.

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