Winning Prediction

Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln

Bundesliga · 19 September 2026

Prediction: Total Match Cards Over 4.5

Probability: 78%

Why

H2H card history — the single strongest predictor — averages 6.5 yellow cards per meeting across both fixtures, with both meetings producing ≥5 total cards (7 yellows plus 2 reds in one fixture, 6 yellows in the other), fully and decisively triggering the high-confidence H2H override rule.

Supporting stats

H2H yellow cards: HSV 6 + Köln 1 = 7 (plus HSV 2 reds) in Köln's home fixture; HSV 2 + Köln 4 = 6 in the HSV home fixture; H2H yellow card average = 6.5 per meeting (2/2 ≥5).

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