Winning Prediction

Lecce vs Bologna

Serie A · 28 September 2025

Prediction: Bet: Lecce Total Fouls Over 12.5

Probability: 80%

Why

Why this bet: Lecce's tactical profile as a low-possession, defensively oriented team, coupled with their struggles in individual duels, makes them prone to committing numerous fouls. Against a ball-dominant Bologna side that actively seeks to penetrate the final third, Lecce players will be frequently engaged in defensive challenges, increasing the likelihood of fouls.

Supporting stats

Supporting Stats: Lecce's Recent Form (Last 10): Lecce averages 12.8 fouls per game, with a range of 7 to 18. Their "groundDuelsPercentage" (avg 28.9%) and "aerialDuelsPercentage" (avg 20.2%) are consistently low, indicating they lose a significant portion of their duels, which often results in fouls to break up play. Lecce's Head-to-Head (Last 4): Lecce averages 13.25 fouls per game against Bologna, with a range of 9 to 16. Player-Specific Fouling: Key Lecce players like Nikola Krstović (3 fouls vs Lazio), Santiago Pierotti (3 fouls vs Lazio), and Medon Berisha (4 fouls vs Genoa) frequently commit fouls. Bologna's Ability to Draw Fouls: Bologna players are often fouled, as seen in "Player Stats" (e.g., Riccardo Orsolini fouled 5 times vs Juventus, Dan Ndoye fouled 5 times vs Genoa, Nicolò Cambiaghi fouled 7 times vs Roma).

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