Winning Prediction

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth

Premier League · 5 September 2026

Prediction: Total Match Cards Over 3.5

Probability: 72%

Why

The two most recent H2H meetings at St. James' Park produced 6 and 7 yellow cards respectively, and Bournemouth averaged 4 yellow cards per game in those two fixtures alone.

Supporting stats

H2H yellow card totals across last 5 meetings: 4, 6, 7, 4, 3 (avg 4.8); Bournemouth fouls avg 12.2/match + Newcastle 10.1/match = combined 22.3, clearing the 22-per-match cards trigger; Bournemouth committed 25 tackles in the most recent H2H at Newcastle with 46% away possession activating the underdog-tackle card pattern.

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