Winning Prediction

Newcastle United vs Liverpool FC

Premier League · 23 August 2026

Prediction: Total Match Fouls Over 22.5

Probability: 68%

Why

The last 5 H2H meetings produced a combined fouls average of 26.0 per match (26+31+32+23+18÷5), consistently clearing a standard market line, reinforced by Liverpool's persistent possession dominance (>15% gap in all 5 H2H fixtures) which forces Newcastle into repeated disruptive fouling as the lower-possession side.

Supporting stats

H2H combined fouls across 5 meetings: 26, 31, 32, 23, 18 (avg 26.0); Liverpool avg possession in H2H: 59.6% vs Newcastle's ~40%; Newcastle committed 17 fouls in most recent H2H at St. James' Park

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