Winning Prediction

OFI Crete vs AE Larisa

Stoiximan Super League · 28 February 2026

Prediction: AE Larisa Total Yellow Cards Over 2.5

Probability: 90%

Why

Tactical Reasoning: This is a "Discipline Collapse" play. AE Larisa's defensive strategy away from home is built on disruption rather than containment. When their possession drops (expected <40% here), their foul count spikes, leading to inevitable bookings. OFI's attackers, particularly Thiago Nuss (statistically fouled 2-4 times per game) and Taxiarchis Fountas, act as "Card Magnets" in the final third.

Supporting stats

Supporting Evidence: Consistent Indiscipline: In their last 5 competitive matches (excluding the anomaly vs Volos), AE Larisa received 4, 5, 4, 3, and 4 Yellow Cards. H2H Friction: In the last H2H meeting, AE Larisa received 4 Yellow Cards despite playing at home. Foul Conversion: Larisa consistently commits 16+ fouls in away games (e.g., 20 vs Levadiakos, 22 vs Volos), providing the referee ample opportunity to brandish cards.

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