Winning Prediction

Olympique Lyonnais vs Auxerre

Ligue 1 · 4 September 2026

Prediction: Total Match Cards Over 3.5

Probability: 72%

Why

Combined foul averages (Lyon 11.1 + Auxerre 15.4 = 26.5 per match) clear the >22 cards-trigger threshold, and Auxerre's away possession in H2H consistently drops to 30–45%, activating the away-underdog tackle-accumulation card pattern — two of the last four H2H meetings already produced ≥4 yellow cards.

Supporting stats

H2H combined yellowCards: 3, 4, 5, 4 (avg 4.0; 3 of 4 meetings produced ≥3); Auxerre fouls last 10 avg 15.4/match (values: 10, 15, 21, 20, 12, 15, 16, 8, 21, 16); Auxerre away H2H possession: 45%, 37%, 30%, 41% — all below 45%.

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