Winning Prediction

Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid

LaLiga · 13 September 2026

Prediction: Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid Total Match Fouls Over 20.5

Probability: 66%

Why

The combined recent foul average of 24.8 per match (RS 13.2 + Atlético 11.6) clears the 24-per-match trigger threshold, and the expected possession gap at RS home creates the structural conditions for reactive fouling from the away side.

Supporting stats

RS fouls last 10 avg = 13.2/match (peaks: 19, 19, 17); Atlético fouls last 10 avg = 11.6/match (peaks: 17, 16, 12, 12, 12); combined projected total of 24.8 exceeds the Over 20.5 line by a margin of +4.3.

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