Winning Prediction

Roma vs Lecce

Serie A · 22 March 2026

Prediction: Both Teams To Score - NO

Probability: 80%

Why

"Possession Suffocation & xG Anemia." Roma dominates the ball at home, starving Lecce of transition opportunities. Lecce's 'Final Third Entries' drop drastically against elite teams, meaning they simply do not get close enough to the Roma goal to generate meaningful Expected Goals (xG). Lecce's Shotmap confirms a heavy reliance on low-probability "Hope Shots" from outside the box (Zone 14) when playing away against top-tier defenses, lacking the penetrative passing to break lines.

Supporting stats

Lecce has failed to score in recent away matches against Inter (0-1), Milan (0-1), and Torino (0-1), generating abysmal xG figures of 0.48 and 0.17 in Milan. Roma has kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 home matches (vs Sassuolo, Cagliari, Cremonese). Furthermore, Lecce failed to score in 3 of the last 4 direct H2H meetings.

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