Winning Prediction

Stade Brestois vs Toulouse

Ligue 1 · 29 August 2026

Prediction: Total Match Cards Over 3.5

Probability: 71%

Why

Combined foul averages of 24.5 per match (Brest 11.0 + Toulouse 13.5) exceed the >22 trigger threshold, and Toulouse have accumulated 6 yellows + 1 red in one of their last 5 matches while posting a combined yellow card average of ~3.8 per match across both sides.

Supporting stats

H2H combined fouls average 29.2 across all 5 meetings (33, 28, 29, 24, 32 — every single fixture exceeds 22); Toulouse's yellowCard totals in last 10 include 6 (vs Olympique Lyonnais), 3 (vs Monaco), 3 (vs Metz), and 3 (vs Strasbourg), with Brest adding 3 yellows vs Rennais and 4 vs Auxerre.

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