Winning Prediction

TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund

Bundesliga · 5 September 2026

Prediction: Total Match Cards Over 3.5

Probability: 78%

Why

The H2H card history is the strongest single predictor and it is fully triggered — the last 5 meetings produced 5, 2, 5, 6, and 7 yellow cards, averaging 5.0 per game with 4 of 5 fixtures clearing 3.5.

Supporting stats

H2H avg cards = 5.0 (4/5 meetings ≥5); combined recent fouls avg = 25.2/match (TSG 13.8 + BVB 11.4), clearing the >22 cards trigger threshold; TSG accumulated 4+ yellows in 3 of their last 10 matches.

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