Winning Prediction

VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln

Bundesliga · 14 February 2026

Prediction: Goal Scored in Second Half (Stuttgart)

Probability: 68%

Why

Tactical Reasoning: The 'Pressure Momentum' analysis highlights a significant mismatch in fitness and focus. Stuttgart's pressure peaks in the 75-90+ minute window (PV 36-53%), whereas Köln consistently fades, showing PV drops to 12-20% in the same period. This suggests Köln's low block tires, opening gaps for Stuttgart to exploit late in the game.

Supporting stats

Supporting Evidence: Momentum Gap: Stuttgart's late-game dominance is a recurring trend in the provided 15-minute phase data. Köln's Late Collapse: Köln conceded pressure heavily in the final 15 minutes against Leverkusen (PV 43%) and Freiburg (PV 40%). H2H Trend: In the last H2H, Stuttgart maintained 30% pressure in the final phase vs Köln's 28%, often leading to late opportunities.

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